Negotiators from Israel and Hamas are heading to Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, to start indirect talks over an end to the Israel-Gaza war.
It is the closest both sides have come to a deal since the war began two years ago.
But Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan – which Israel has agreed to and Hamas has partly agreed to – is really just a framework, only a few pages long.
And there are still major sticking points for both sides to resolve.
Hostage release structure
Trump’s plan states that within 72 hours of a deal being agreed all remaining hostages would be released. It is thought 48 Israeli hostages remain in Gaza, 20 of whom are believed to be alive.
Trump said over the weekend the hostages could be released “very soon”, while Netanyahu said they could be freed before the end of the Jewish holiday Sukkot – or October 13th.
Hamas has agreed to the hostage “exchange formula” detailed in Trump’s plan, providing certain “field conditions” are met.
But the hostages are the group’s only bargaining chip – and it’s unclear whether it would be willing to release them before other elements of the deal are finalised.
Trust between the two sides is virtually non-existent. Only last month, Israel attempted to assassinate Hamas’s negotiating team with an air strike on Doha – angering not only Hamas but also Donald Trump and Qatar, a key mediator.
Members of that same negotiating team – headed by Khalil al-Hayya, whose son was killed in the strike – will now be meeting just a stone’s throw from Israel’s delegation in Egypt.
Hamas disarmament
Israel’s stated goal throughout the war has been the destruction of Hamas. Netanyahu has repeatedly stated he will not stop until the group is finished.
A key point in Trump’s plan requires the group to disarm. But Hamas has previously refused to lay down its weapons, saying it would only do so once a Palestinian state has been established.
In its response, Hamas made no mention of disarmament – fuelling speculation that it has not changed its position.
Over the weekend, Netanyahu vowed: “Hamas will be disarmed and Gaza will be demilitarised – either the easy way or the hard way”.
Future governance of Gaza
The plan states that Hamas will have no future role in Gaza, which will be governed by a temporary transitional body of Palestinian technocrats – supervised by a “Board of Peace” headed and chaired by Donald Trump and involving former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair.
Governance of the Strip would eventually be handed over to the Palestinian Authority (PA).
Though Netanyahu agreed to all of Trump’s 20-point plan, he appeared to push back on involvement of the PA even as he stood on the podium next to the president last week, insisting it would play no role in governing the territory.
This is one of many points in the plan that will be objectionable to ultranationalist hardliners within Netanyahu’s governing coalition – many of whom want to retain control of Gaza and reconstruct Jewish settlements there.
In Hamas’s response, it indicated that it expects to have some future role in Gaza as part of “a unified Palestinian movement”. Though the wording is vague, this will likely be unacceptable to both Trump and the Israelis.
Israeli withdrawal
The extent of Israel’s military withdrawal is a fourth point of contention.
The plan states that Israel’s military will withdraw from Gaza “based on standards, milestones, and timeframes” that must be agreed by all parties.
A map distributed by the White House showed three proposed stages of Israeli troop withdrawal. The first stage leaves about 55% of Gaza under Israeli control, the second 40%, and the final 15%.
That final stage would be a “security perimeter” that would “remain until Gaza is properly secure from any resurgent terror threat”.
The wording here is vague and gives no clear timeline for full Israeli withdrawal – something Hamas are likely to want clarity on.
Additionally, the map shared by the White House doesn’t match up with the Israeli military’s own maps showing militarised areas, and Gaza’s borders are incorrectly drawn in places.
