This is not merely a big moment for Kemi Badenoch and for Robert Jenrick – though it is, of course, both of those things.
This is a massive moment for the future of the British right.
When Badenoch became leader of the Conservative Party just over a year ago the party was still polling higher than Reform, which is often forgotten.
A lot changed in 2025.
The Conservative Party is often called the most successful political party in the democratic world, and yet its MPs genuinely fear being usurped by Reform UK.
That is why the question of Jenrick’s future matters. Jenrick finished second in the leadership election in 2024 and his creative use of social videos has only given him greater prominence since.
On one level, then, this is pretty simple.
If Jenrick was – or is – planning to defect to Reform, as Badenoch alleges, then that would be by far the most senior defection so far and a pretty crushing blow to the Conservative Party.
There are other layers to this though.
Jenrick and Reform UK have had some fairly salty exchanges in the past. Given they have, at least until now, been political opponents, that’s perhaps not a surprise.
Yet it is still a significant hiccup they would have to explain if he were to defect.
For example in August, Nigel Farage posted on X: “Jenrick is a fraud.”
And when it comes to Zia Yusuf, Reform’s head of policy and former chairman, it is hard to choose the best example of him attacking Jenrick and his record.
It is also worth reflecting on what a political journey Jenrick has been on for his defection even to be plausible.
He was first elected in a by-election in 2014 where his main rival was Farage’s then-party, Ukip.
Once in the Commons, he was part of the Conservative mainstream, voting Remain in the EU referendum and backing first Michael Gove then Theresa May in the leadership election that followed.
When he joined forces with Rishi Sunak and Oliver Dowden to endorse Boris Johnson’s 2019 leadership campaign it was a massive moment because it signalled that that was where the momentum of mainstream Conservative rising stars was flowing.
Jenrick got by far the biggest job of the trio – housing secretary – in Johnson’s first cabinet but before long was left far behind by his closest political friends.
When Sunak became prime minister, it was striking that Jenrick was not even a full cabinet minister as immigration minister.
It was his experience in this job which, friends say, transformed him as he saw up close what he saw as a dysfunctional immigration system. His internal critics claimed that this was political opportunism from somebody anticipating a post-general election leadership contest.
Ultimately, he quit Sunak’s government because he believed his policies on illegal immigration did not go far enough. And he moved to the right on other issues too.
Fast forward to today, and it was Badenoch’s belief that Jenrick was about to make the ultimate leap to the right which has plunged the Conservative Party into turmoil.
Conservative MPs are reeling at Jenrick’s sacking. One MP just told me there is an eerie quiet in the party’s WhatsApp groups.
Many MPs will already have left Parliament, and London, for the weekend.
One MP I’ve just spoken to, who was generally aligned with Jenrick, was adamant that the former shadow justice secretary had merely been keeping his options open when it came to Reform.
They said his preferred option was to wait for the elections in May, and then see if there was a possibility of him becoming Conservative leader first.
We will have to see what evidence Badenoch has, and what Jenrick says, to assess whether that MP is simply being naïve.
A senior Conservative MP said to me in the immediate aftermath of Badenoch’s announcement that this was “a massive mess” for their party.
That feels inarguable.
But it will take time to work out whether Badenoch triggering this mess was preferable to the alternative.
