A trader observes screens at the Diamond Trading Academy in Nice, France, in September 2016.
12:14 JST, January 15, 2026
GABORONE — The rapid adoption of synthetic diamonds has hurt prices for their natural analogues. A number of mines have closed, and production of natural diamonds is only expected to continue declining. Outside of high-end markets, the natural stones may keep struggling against their more affordable, synthetic counterparts.
Asked to retire
The Jwaneng district in southern Botswana is home to one of the world’s largest diamond mines. Small, identical, single-story homes line the district’s streets. Some residents in work clothes can be seen among the houses, which are for the mine’s employees. But the homes are often unoccupied.
A 42-year-old man, who earns 3,000 pula (¥34,000) a month digging for diamonds, was asked to retire in September.
Under his contract, he can live rent-free until he turns 60 but must leave the company housing if he quits the firm.
Although he works at the mine with shovel in hand from 7 a.m. to 3 p.m. every day, he said he has never found a diamond. He added that he couldn’t believe he may be laid off because of synthetic diamonds, given how valuable natural diamonds are.
What’s the difference?
With the rise of synthetic diamonds, prices for the mined stones have fallen about 30% from 2022, hitting a five-year low. In 2024, about 20% of the market was synthetic diamonds, up from about 1% in 2015.
Synthetic diamonds have the same physical properties as found in mines, and thanks to technological advances, it can be difficult to differentiate the two. The natural kind vary in quality, making it hard to make blanket comparisons with synthetic diamonds, but the latter can usually be purchased for considerably less.
In the United States — the largest market for diamonds — the artificial stones account for more than 40% of engagement ring sales. Gen Z, with its focus on getting more value for less money, appears to be particularly enamored. As Gen Zers begin to marry, they are often choosing synthetic diamonds for their engagement rings.
Ethical consumption, or buying products after considering a brand’s approach to social issues such as the environment or human rights, has also boosted demand for synthetic diamonds. Some argue that diamond mining harms the environment. Well-known U.S. singers and actors are said to have chosen products made with synthetic diamonds for ethical reasons.
Fighting back with Taylor Swift
The natural diamond industry has tried to distinguish mined diamonds from their synthetic peers.
Industry giant De Beers entered the synthetic diamond business in 2018 but announced its withdrawal in May 2025. Subsequently, it launched a major campaign in the United States to promote natural diamonds, featuring singer Taylor Swift. The company stresses the rarity of its diamonds, and notes that they were formed over a billion years ago by nature.
However, restoring demand is no easy task. Natural diamond production is expected to be adjusted according to demand, leading to a reduced supply.
As for synthetic diamonds, prices “are expected to continue to decline as long as the margins in the value chain remain high,” said Edahn Golan, an expert in the field. According to Golan, natural diamonds could become scarcer, driving up their prices, if there is still demand for the real thing.
