Russia’s military offensive accelerated in late May and early June after months of stagnation and Ukrainian counterattacks. Vladimir Putin has declared that “there is no place without an offensive,” but the gains are limited to a few sectors. Ukraine’s defenses in Kostiantynivka — at the southern end of the greater Kramatorsk area — weakened sharply in recent weeks, allowing Russian forces to push toward the city center from two directions. Russia’s advance also continues east of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, along the southern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River and near the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal. Russian pressure in the eastern Zaporizhzhia region has resumed in force after Ukrainian counterattacks halted the offensive there for several months. Elsewhere, Russia’s progress is stalling at best, and Moscow is unlikely to capture the greater Kramatorsk area and adjacent parts of the Donetsk region before the end of the year.
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What’s so special about the battle for the greater Kramatorsk area?
Vladimir Putin has demanded that the Ukrainian military withdraw from the Donetsk region — the Kremlin’s stated condition for a ceasefire, supposedly agreed upon by Putin and Donald Trump in Anchorage in 2025. Moscow also occasionally demands the handover of all “Russian” territories, including the formally annexed Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, though the Anchorage discussions centered on a ceasefire along the line of contact in those regions. In the event Kyiv refuses — as it has done repeatedly — the Kremlin has promised to seize the remaining Ukrainian‑held territory by force.
Ukrainian forces currently hold territory in the northern Donetsk region, centered on Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. Delivering on Moscow’s threats would require capturing those cities, which anchor the entire Ukrainian defensive position in the Donbas. Russian forces have been pushing on the area from four directions for the past year and a half. Russia is also trying to seize as much territory as possible in the Zaporizhzhia region, to secure a more favorable position ahead of any hypothetical partition along the line of contact.
All other Russian offensive operations lack strategic and political significance: neither the creation of a “buffer zone” along the border in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions nor the battle for Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region brings the Kremlin any closer to an “Anchorage-style” victory. Ukrainian forces have therefore concentrated their main strength in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. This concentration — together with an expanded use of drones — has slowed an already sluggish Russian offensive.
The assault on Kostiantynivka
- After months of fighting, Russian forces captured the greater Toretsk area by the end of 2025 and began their assault on Kostiantynivka — the southernmost city in the Kramatorsk area. By area, Kostiantynivka is larger than even Pokrovsk, which Russian forces had also seized.
- Ukrainian forces held Russian troops to the city’s southern outskirts for months. Ukrainian positions in the south remain in place — fighting continues even in Ivanopillia, between Toretsk and Kostiantynivka. Those Ukrainian units, however, were outflanked by Russian forces advancing along the city’s western and eastern edges.
- In recent weeks, Russian troops in the southwest of Kostiantynivka broke through Ukrainian positions in the suburb of Illinivka and reached the city’s northwestern section. Meanwhile, Russian units that had been assaulting the city’s largest industrial zone — the Zinc Plant — advanced along the Kryvyi Torets River, which bisects Kostiantynivka, and converged on the same position.
- A separate Russian formation, advancing along the eastern edge of Kostiantynivka, reached the city center via the suburb of Novodmytrivka.
- Several Ukrainian “pockets” remain behind Russian lines, supplied by air via heavy drones.
- As the Toretsk assault demonstrated, even under such unfavorable conditions, Ukrainian troops — including the very units now defending Kostiantynivka — can hold out for weeks or months in near-total encirclement. There is, however, a counterexample: the assault on Pokrovsk and the neighboring city of Myrnograd, where the rapid infiltration of large numbers of Russian assault groups through different city districts led to the swift collapse of Ukrainian defenses.
- Capturing Kostiantynivka is essential for the Russian military to mass forces — including drone operators — in urban districts for a continued push north toward Kramatorsk via Druzhkivka. Units stalled on the approaches to Druzhkivka — to the southwest near Sofiivka, and to the southeast near the Siverskyi Donets – Donbas Canal in the area of Markove and Malynivka — are waiting on that advance.
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The offensive toward Sloviansk
- Russian forces that captured Siversk in 2025 continue their advance along the Siverskyi Donets River toward Sloviansk.
- The operation was expected to be supported by a formation on the opposite bank of the Siverskyi Donets, which was attempting to capture the city of Lyman and river crossings to the south. That formation has not only failed its main objective but has in recent months also lost part of the territory it had seized to Ukrainian counterattacks.
- This, in turn, slowed the advance of forces directly south of the Siverskyi Donets, where the Russian offensive stalled near Kryva Luka.
- The offensive between the river and the Siverskyi Donets – Donbas Canal (carried out by a division recently transferred from near Kherson) continues. Russian forces are now focused on capturing the village of Rai-Oleksandrivka, which covers Sloviansk from the southeast.
- Overall, the pace of the Russian advance in this sector has slowed significantly since the capture of Siversk in late 2025, though it could accelerate again if Ukrainian defenses to the south — around Kostiantynivka — continue to deteriorate.
Fighting in the eastern Zaporizhzhia region
- Over the past year, Russian forces have been pushing through the city of Huliaipole — captured in late 2025 — toward the main Ukrainian stronghold in the central part of the Zaporizhzhia region: the city of Orikhiv.
- Following Ukrainian attacks on the border between the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions in winter and early spring (where they broke through 10 to 15 kilometers across a weak Russian screen into the area of Ternove and Berezove), the Russian offensive stalled on the outskirts of Huliaipole. Russian commanders were forced to move large reserves from near Pokrovsk and Druzhkivka. This halted the Ukrainian counterattacks near Berezove and Ternove, and allowed Russia to resume its offensive on Orikhiv from the direction of Huliaipole.
- Russian forces have yet to eliminate the “pocket” that formed from Ukrainian attacks on the Dnipropetrovsk – Zaporizhzhia border (though they have recaptured Ternove and Berezove). Moscow appears to be trying to solve the problem of securing the northern flank of its Orikhiv-bound formation once and for all — by attacking the town of Pokrovske, the main Ukrainian logistics hub in the area. Russian assault units reached the Vovcha River directly south of Pokrovske in late May. Fighting on this flank continues.
- Meanwhile, Russia’s 5th Combined Arms Army, reinforced from near Pokrovsk, resumed its eastward advance toward Orikhiv. By early June, Russian forces had captured all four settlements along the line of Charyvne, Huliaipolske (Komsomolske), Verkhnia Tersa, and Vozdvyzhivka. The advance now threatens to outflank and cut off the Ukrainian force defending Mala Tokmachka and Orikhiv itself.
